自考畢業(yè)論文：人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)旅游業(yè)影響的實(shí)證分析

自考畢業(yè)論文：人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)旅游業(yè)影響的實(shí)證分析

人民幣升值對(duì)我國(guó)旅游業(yè)影響的實(shí)證分析
中文摘要
本文在分析了解近年來我國(guó)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展情況和人民幣匯率變化情況的基礎(chǔ)上，基于需求理論，通過計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型就人民幣升值對(duì)旅游業(yè)的影響進(jìn)行回歸分析，得出人民幣升值抑制我國(guó)入境旅游，而對(duì)出境旅游市場(chǎng)影響甚微的結(jié)論。指出在國(guó)民收入、國(guó)家相關(guān)政策的共同作用下，我國(guó)出境旅游處于快速發(fā)展階段導(dǎo)致出入境旅游市場(chǎng)人次增長(zhǎng)的不同步、旅游服務(wù)出現(xiàn)貿(mào)易逆差，最后就此背景下我國(guó)國(guó)際旅游發(fā)展進(jìn)行了相關(guān)的思考與建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：需求理論，人民幣升值，匯率，出入境旅游，計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)
ABSTRACT
Analyzing the tourism industry development profile in China and the RMB Exchange Rate variation in recent years, this research bases its foundation on Demand Theory, and conducts Regression Analysis through Econometric Model for the impact the appreciation of RMB exerts on the tourism industry. It comes to a conclusion that the appreciation of RMB restrains the inbound tourism while exerting very little influence on the outbound tourism. This research indicates that by the jointly action of national income and national related policy, the rapid development of outbound tourism in China has brought about the situation of desynchronized person-time increase of inbound and outbound tourism market as well as trade deficit in tourism service industry. Eventually, some opinions and proposals are given for international tourism development of China.

Key words: demand theory, the appreciation of RMB, inbound and outbound tourism, econometrics

目錄
中文摘要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
1.引言 1
2.選題意義 1
3.研究?jī)?nèi)容 1
4.文獻(xiàn)綜述 2
5.理論基礎(chǔ)與研究方法 2
6.人民幣升值與我國(guó)旅游業(yè)發(fā)展概括 3
6.1 人民幣升值概括 3
6.2 我國(guó)出入境旅游業(yè)發(fā)展概括 3
7.理論模型的建立 4
7.1 入境游市場(chǎng)理論模型 5
7.2 出境游市場(chǎng)理論模型 5
8.人民幣升值對(duì)旅游業(yè)影響計(jì)量模型 6
8.1 總體回歸模型的建立 6
8.2 樣本選取與數(shù)據(jù)來源 6
8.3 入境旅游樣本回歸模型 6
8.3.1 模型結(jié)構(gòu)的穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn) 7
8.3.2 異方差檢驗(yàn) 7
8.3.3 序列相關(guān)檢驗(yàn) 8
8.4 出境旅游樣本回歸模型 9
8.4.1 模型的修正 9
8.4.2 異方差檢驗(yàn) 10
8.4.3 序列相關(guān)檢驗(yàn) 10
9. 結(jié)論與思考 11
9.1 結(jié)論 11
9.2 思考 12
9.3本次研究的局限性和今后的研究方向 13
附錄 14
附錄一：相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù) 14
參考文獻(xiàn) 16
致謝 17